Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-19.
Street snapshot
All six covering analysts rate FinVolution a buy, giving a consensus recommendation score of 1. Target prices span CNY 39.32 to 61.58, with a mean of about 49.26 across six estimates.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Analyst counts shown explicitly; recommendation respondents: 6.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 6, Outperform 0, Hold 0, Underperform 0, Sell 0 | 6 |
| Consensus score | 1.00 | 6 |
| Target price | mean 49.26; high 61.58; low 39.32 | 6 |
Forward table
Forward quarterly coverage is thin, limited mostly to dividend-per-share estimates.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Analyst count is the estimate count for each period and metric.
| Period | Metric | Mean | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY0E | Revenue | 12,686 | -6.5% | 5 | 12,022 / 13,248 |
| FY0E | EBITDA | 2,339 | -24.6% | 1 | 2,339 / 2,339 |
| FY0E | EBIT | 2,261 | -22.5% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Net income (GAAP) | 1,967 | -22.6% | 5 | 1,748 / 2,095 |
| FY0E | Net income (normalized) | 2,092 | -22.3% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | EPS (GAAP) | 8.18 | -14.7% | 4 | 7.84 / 8.46 |
| FY0E | EPS (normalized) | 8.31 | -18.1% | 4 | 7.84 / 9.07 |
| FY0E | Free cash flow | 533.0 | -68.0% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Dividend per share | 2.08 | -13.9% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Capital expenditure | -26.00 | 67.7% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | ROE | 11.9% | -25.2% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Cash from operations | 3,159 | 55.8% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Revenue | 13,555 | 6.8% | 5 | 12,927 / 14,058 |
| FY+1E | EBITDA | 2,461 | 5.2% | 1 | 2,461 / 2,461 |
| FY+1E | EBIT | 2,576 | 14.0% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Net income (GAAP) | 2,309 | 17.4% | 5 | 2,176 / 2,507 |
| FY+1E | Net income (normalized) | 2,457 | 17.4% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | EPS (GAAP) | 9.69 | 18.6% | 4 | 8.27 / 10.44 |
| FY+1E | EPS (normalized) | 9.75 | 17.3% | 4 | 8.27 / 11.07 |
| FY+1E | Free cash flow | 1,834 | 244.1% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Dividend per share | 2.43 | 16.9% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Capital expenditure | -27.50 | 5.8% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | ROE | 12.5% | 4.8% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Cash from operations | 2,232 | -29.3% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Revenue | 14,779 | 9.0% | 3 | 14,165 / 15,248 |
| FY+2E | EBIT | 2,990 | 16.1% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Net income (GAAP) | 2,654 | 14.9% | 3 | 2,481 / 2,771 |
| FY+2E | Net income (normalized) | 2,829 | 15.1% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | EPS (GAAP) | 11.33 | 16.9% | 3 | 11.02 / 11.52 |
| FY+2E | EPS (normalized) | 11.18 | 14.7% | 3 | 10.00 / 12.08 |
| FY+2E | Free cash flow | 2,370 | 29.2% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Dividend per share | 2.66 | 9.1% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Capital expenditure | -20.00 | -27.3% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | ROE | 12.6% | 0.9% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Cash from operations | 2,390 | 7.1% | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2024 | Dividend per share | 0.00 | — | — | — / — |
| Q4 FY2024 | Dividend per share | 2.05 | — | — | — / — |
| Q2 FY2025 | Dividend per share | 0.00 | — | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2025 | Dividend per share | 0.00 | — | — | — / — |
Estimate momentum
FY2028 estimates were nudged lower on a similar path, so the revisions are broad rather than a single-period move.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Point-in-time consensus; analyst count is shown where supplied.
| Period | Metric | Lookback | Then | Now | Direction / magnitude | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 | Revenue | 30d | 14,779 | 14,779 | flat 0.0% | — |
| 2028 | Revenue | 90d | 15,175 | 14,779 | down 2.6% | — |
| 2028 | EPS (normalized) | 30d | 11.18 | 11.18 | flat 0.0% | — |
| 2028 | EPS (normalized) | 90d | 11.37 | 11.18 | down 1.7% | — |
| 2027 | Revenue | 30d | 13,829 | 13,555 | down 2.0% | — |
| 2027 | Revenue | 90d | 14,051 | 13,555 | down 3.5% | — |
| 2027 | Revenue | 180d | 14,384 | 13,555 | down 5.8% | — |
| 2027 | EPS (normalized) | 30d | 10.10 | 9.75 | down 3.5% | — |
| 2027 | EPS (normalized) | 90d | 10.00 | 9.75 | down 2.6% | — |
| 2027 | EPS (normalized) | 180d | 10.59 | 9.75 | down 7.9% | — |
Beat / miss record
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 2 consecutive misses; EPS (normalized): 3 consecutive beats.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective; analyst count shown per observation.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus as of | Actual | Surprise | Outcome | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | 3,078 | 3,024 | -1.8% | Miss | — |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | 1.61 | 1.77 | 9.9% | Beat | — |
| Q3 FY2022 | Revenue | 2,800 | 2,525 | -9.8% | Miss | — |
| Q2 FY2022 | Revenue | 2,600 | 2,666 | 2.5% | Beat | — |
| Q4 FY2021 | EPS (normalized) | 2.00 | 2.36 | 18.0% | Beat | — |
| Q1 FY2020 | Revenue | 650.9 | 2,106 | 223.6% | Beat | — |
| Q1 FY2020 | EPS (normalized) | 0.21 | 1.36 | 540.0% | Beat | — |
| Q4 FY2019 | Revenue | 1,114 | 1,233 | 10.7% | Beat | — |
| Q4 FY2019 | EPS (normalized) | 1.32 | 1.32 | -0.1% | Miss | — |
Where the street disagrees
Disagreement is concentrated in the out-year normalized EPS, where FY2027 spans CNY 8.27 to 11.07 (standard deviation ~1.02). Estimate counts there are small — four or fewer — and single-broker items such as EBITDA weaken the signal further.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Dispersion is high-low divided by absolute mean; analyst count shown per item.
| Period | Metric | Mean | Low | High | Spread / mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | EPS (normalized) | 9.75 | 8.27 | 11.07 | 28.8% | 4 |
| 2027 | EPS (GAAP) | 9.69 | 8.27 | 10.44 | 22.4% | 4 |
| 2028 | EPS (normalized) | 11.18 | 10.00 | 12.08 | 18.6% | 3 |
| 2026 | Net income (GAAP) | 1,967 | 1,748 | 2,095 | 17.6% | 5 |
| 2026 | EPS (normalized) | 8.31 | 7.84 | 9.07 | 14.8% | 4 |